Thank You Sir May I Have Another

How the 2016 Election Will Turn Out

Yes, everyone seems to have an opinion on how the 2016 election will turn out, but most of those opinions are based on fervor not any kind of analysis or critical thinking.

Prediction 1: Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee.

Before the Hillary camp gets all up in arms, be realistic. On the primary side, delegates and states won’t really matter. What does matter is the FBI formally confirming an investigation into Hillary. Just think about it. When the FBI takes the step of formally confirming an investigation, they have something. Think back to the 70s and 80s and their pursuit of organized crime families. It didn’t matter how many times the FBI got knocked down in court pursuing The Teflon Don they kept coming after him. Eventually he went to prison. If you need a more recent reminder read up on Whitey Bulger.

Even if she is neither arrested nor indicted before the election, this will be hanging over her head becoming a larger and larger concern for the electorate. Nobody wants to endure another 4+ years with a sitting president constantly under investigation by the FBI.

Prediction 2: Trump will be the Republican nominee.

It doesn’t matter how many worthless former Presidential candidates the party brings out to denounce Trump. Those fools lost for good reason. Instead of taking him down they are confirming to the electorate why he should be the candidate. If they all lost and they all say Trump is the wrong candidate then, in the minds of many, it will mean he is on the right track.

Just who is left that has any shot? Cruz? He is a Dominionist. No matter how anyone tries to spin it, given ISIS claim their version of Islam should rule the world, no thinking voter in America would willingly hand nuclear launch codes to someone who preaches a biblical version of the same trope.

The only real difference between these two camps has been tactics. No matter how one chooses to spin it, forcing someone to follow a religion not of their choosing is the ultimate human sin. Most people do not want to find out what would happen if a group following such an edict were to suddenly acquire enough nuclear weapons to destroy the Earth many times over. Greed can be controlled and predicted, that is why it is one of the deadly sins. Blind faith cannot be swayed from the opinion glassing the planet really is doing God’s work.

If you really want a good explanation about a horrible goal pursued via diametrically opposed tactics, watch the Stargate SG-1 episodes covering the Aschen. Carter had a great and telling line in the final episode. Something along the lines of “It’s the same outcome, their method is just slower.”

Yes, the Rubio camp will feel slighted if they don’t get a mention, but seriously, that credit card thing won’t go away. All of the spin doctors in the world can say it was a made up scandal but that won’t make it go away. It showed really poor judgement and it wasn’t that long ago. Time will make it less of an issue, but it will take a decade. If someone north of 40 is running for office does anyone really care about keg stands and joints they may have smoked at a frat house? Do we even care if there are tales about a wild weekend in Vegas having no idea who she was or how he got there when he was twenty-something? No matter how detestable some of the devoutly religious may find those things, the bulk of the nation writes if off as that “Wild Oats” stage of life.

The credit card thing on the other hand sounds very Clintonesque. Like the rules don’t apply to them. The party of angry old white men isn’t willing to put forth a Clinton from their own ranks but they are willing to elect an angry old white man who seems crazy.

Prediction 3: Trump vs. Bernie – Trump Loses Hands Down

There are many polls people will point to claiming this prediction is completely baseless, but polls are meant to be printed on rolls of Charmin so they can at least serve _some_ purpose. The “I Hate Trump” Republicans are splitting their votes among the non-Trump candidates. There are enough of them that, were there only one candidate against Trump he “might” have a tough go in the primary.

When the actual election happens, most of them won’t have changed their opinion on Trump. Unless some third party candidate makes a bid, they either stay home or vote for Bernie. If it was Trump vs. Hillary they would just stay home, but enough of them will believe the fraudulent spin their party fed them during the primary about Bernie not being able to herd the cats in Washington long enough to accomplish anything that they will decide to teach their party a lesson and put Bernie in office.