It is amazing anyone is stunned we now have a Brexit. This was inevitable. The EU refused to go all-in and colonize Syria instead trying to absorb millions of refugees into a demoralized economy they can lay at the feet of Wall Street’s major bankers. You know, those elitists who managed to avoid prison while engaging in a financial scam that made Bernie Maddoff seem like a punk who knocked over a 7/11.
Yes, there will be a few days of market adjustment, possibly a few weeks, until traders and Americans realize Brittan will have to buy more from us until they renegotiate trade deals with the EU. Perhaps they will just keep buying from us and skip renegotiating with the EU?
Many reading this might seem shocked I said colonize Syria, but that is what has to happen. If the disastrous Bush Wars taught the world anything it is that you cannot expect a region rife with tribal cultures and ancient hatreds to rule themselves in a democratic manner. The history of tyrants and corruption both past and present shows the local culture has not progressed far enough for self rule. We may have hated and needed to take out the tyrants of the region, but, only a tyrant can rule disparate tribal cultures.
Unless a country takes on the monumental task of colonizing Syria, removing Assad, his family and cohorts completely, the war there will not have a good outcome for the human race. We have honest examples to reference.
Compare India and Egypt.
No matter how horrible the population of India may have thought the colonization, it groomed the country to be a global player. Despite the poverty existing in many parts of it, they have a system of education in place which churns out citizens who not only speak the language of commerce but have the skills to participate in a more technology based world. They were a British colony from roughly 1757 through 1947 and over the course of the past decade have fully stepped onto the world stage.
Egypt was a British colony from 1882 until 1956. If you are north of 50 you grew up seeing news reports of the strife, war and turmoil of Egypt since it became its own country. It’s current situation is abysmal. One could easily draw the conclusion that tribal and cast cultures need roughly 200 years of colonization before they adopt practices which make them ready to both govern themselves and join the global civilization.
There are quite a few people who point to the 1920 agreement as the basis for our present day problems in Iraq and Syria. While some will debate such things one only has to look back in history to see colonies which became true global players and those which turned into perpetually failed states. It does appear 200 years makes a difference.
The EU did not have 200 years. There is some debate as to what, if anything, will be left of the EU by 2020. From discussions I have heard as well as news reports, the EU itself will cease to exist but the Euro currency may well continue. One of the biggest factors in getting countries to join was the common currency. Elimination of exchange rates and conversions spurred commerce and travel. Oddly enough the British Pound Sterling did not bow out for the Euro which really should have been the writing on the wall. If a country wasn’t willing to give up its currency it wasn’t going to stay in your union very long.
When the EU collapses, the current member countries will need to choose a unifying currency. They can cobble together some central currency authority to keep the Euro on life support, change to American Dollars or adopt the Chinese Yuan.
Truth be told, in order for the next level of commerce and travel to be achieved, the world needs a global currency. Especially for the travel. The questions remain though:
- what will that currency be?
- which country will be the first to adopt it?
The EU was a grand experiment and some experiments fail. Any new type of government needs roughly 200 years of colonization to alter the culture and mindset of the people under it. None of the member countries wished to be colonies or give up control, most notably Brittan, so the EU was doomed from the start.