What will AWS customers do when Amazon goes out of business?

It is inevitable that Amazon (AMZN) will go under and it will be sooner rather than later. Amazon is now where Sears was and the fall of Amazon will be much faster. I’ve talked a bit about this in my latest book.

The Minimum You Need to Know About the Phallus of AGILE

The topic came up again during an email conversation with a former coworker. They are retired and watched their retirement portfolio get cut in half this past week. That’s right, half! Living on the left-coast they naturally chased “the tech stocks” like every other lemming headed over the cliff.

The featured image of this post is Photo 124487271 / Amazon Com © Jonathan Weiss | Dreamstime.com.

Retailer lifecycle

The retail market is brutal and for those without a solid niche, it has a definite patter.

  • You’re new, you’re wonderful, people are just discovering you.
  • Word spreads, you grow fast.
  • Maybe you’re a bit cheaper? Maybe you’ve convinced some “influencers” that you are the new “it” chain? Everybody is telling everybody to go there.
  • Management builds a towering monument to the size of its penis.
  • You start getting bad press. You honk some vocal customers off. Workers unionize because you really are a shitty place to work.
  • Your credit rating tanks. Your stock price disappears. You start selling the sinks out of the employee restrooms just to say afloat.
  • You end up like Sears, and finally Venture.

Oh – Amazon is more than a retailer

So was Sears. How many of you have a Discover card? Sears created it. Activist investors made them spin it off.

How about Allstate insurance? Yep. Another thing they were forced to spin off by activist investors.

How about Morgan Stanley for investments and banking? Sears created Dean Witter which became Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and is now just called Morgan Stanley.

While a token few pieces of Amazon may survive the coming implosion, they will only do so if activist investors start busting up the company now. You see, Amazon is too poorly run and has too much bad press. It’s on the downward slide.

The Amazon toilet flush

Given Sears still has 23 stores or something like that, one could say it is still gasping and twitching. What one couldn’t say is that it is doing well. This link gives a pictorial history of ten stores everyone shopped at that no longer exist. When you hear the phrase “Dime store,” that was Woolworth’s. Today we have multiple “dollar store” chains. Woolworth’s management just couldn’t shake “the dime store” model. Most “dollar” stores have very few things that sell for a buck. That list left off some notable entries: Venture, Circuit City, Fretter, Montgomery Ward, Builders Square, Toys “R” Us, the list goes on and on. At one point J.C. Penny was a down & out dog, now it is buying Khols.

So, if one lives long enough, they get to see this movie time and time again. With a traditional retailer it is a slow decline until the creditors slam the door. Pre-pandemic everyone realized a retailer was going under when the shelves were empty. Not a good indicator anymore. With Amazon, it will be a toilet flush. The Tidy Bowl Man is tugging on the chain.

Tidy Bowl Man commercial

Train wrecks currently in progress

The rockets

Lots of reports that Amazon (and other) rockets are going to be killing people everywhere due to all of the toxins and the massive number of launches. NASA used to only get a rocket up once every so many years. These guys are planning on making their launch pads be like O’Hare airport. When the people living “down wind” of these things start turning up sick or dead, personal injury lawyers will come out of everywhere.

Unions

Nothing screams to the general public that your company is a shit-hole like a public union vote. Amazon then got caught intimidating workers ahead of the vote. Amazon also go tagged with illegally firing workers who organized union vote.

Rest assured the union votes will come at a furious pace now. Bernie Sanders is hot on the trail of Amazon and that will give people hope. More importantly it shines a spotlight on what a shit-hole Amazon is. Amazon has been abusing labor for a very long time, I’ve blogged about it before.

China spy chips on servers

Bloomberg ran a story about Chinese spy chips on server motherboards. Apple and Amazon “deny” this, but have never proven it wasn’t true. More importantly, the DOD contract was up for bid at the time. Bloomberg stuck to its story. This never went to court. Odds are this was a DOD leak and the NSA certainly has the people who could find it.

Amazon can’t “just ignore” this story because it isn’t going away. Companies that hire legitimate companies to assist with any cloud migration strategy always point this out.

Amizon anti-trust, tax evasion, and obstruction of Congress

Multiple countries are looking to use anti-trust to not only do in Amazon but to fine the living shit out of it while they dismantle the thing. The tax evasion thing will be rolled into this anti-trust stuff. That Obstruction of Congress is a criminal case. The criminal case is also is getting quite a bit of press in legitimate news circles.

AGILE and Ring

The AGILE hacking on the fly without any real plan that is typical of Amazon software development produced the highly insecure Ring product. I’ve blogged about this one before as well. The pandemic bought Amazon a little time, but there is no way they can really win.

Ring hacker terrifies little girl and family

Just make sure every person on the jury has little kids and no way they don’t convict when shown this video.

Post-Pandemic reality

We had two plus years of basically being trapped inside. Lots of people ordered from Amazon. Many of them got pissed off at Amazon over one thing or other. Probably the biggest post-pandemic reality now is that most consumers really want to go to a shopping mall.

I had to take my mother to one the last time things kind of calmed down. You know what I saw? People just wandering around. Most weren’t even going into stores, just watching other people, walking, and stopping at the food court. They had forgotten how to be social in a social setting, but were working on it.

Investors have figured this out too. Everybody has noticed Amazon has an awful lot of empty warehouse space.

$6 gasoline

Financial trade press likes to talk about inflation, possible recession. Workin’ Joe just knows that the 6 MPG amazon deliver vans cost a lot more to run when gas hits $6/gallon.

AAA national average as of 05/25/2022

The low income people who would normally shop online for the cheapest price have a lot less money to spend when gasoline is over $2/gallon. Neiman Marcus customers, however, just keep shopping.

Summary

The sell-off of Amazon will have no bottom. There is too much working against it. While building a rocket as a testimony to the size of his manhood, Bezos took his eye off the ball. The general population is just now learning how wretched the working conditions have been at Amazon given all of the publicity around the union votes.

Tech made in China is going to be increasingly difficult to import over the coming years. This is reality. Spy software in the 5G equipment is too big a chance for America to take with infrastructure. Pretty soon the government is going to be checking your Apple phones and every other tech product imported from China.

You will always find a rash of “3 Reasons to Buy” articles published online after a sell-off. Those Judas Goat articles to lead fools to slaughter. You can’t play a Dead Cat Bounce until the cat actually hits the pavement. Amazon is definitely headed there. Avoid the articles trying to encourage a sucker rally. Until this hits $2/share it isn’t worth looking at.

Management doesn’t get any smarter until a stock is about to be de-listed.

The real question is how many careers will be over because they decided to use AWS when this happens?

If you’ve worked in IT long enough, you’ve seen this movie too. Out-sourcing functions to companies that go under and leave you twisting in the breeze has a time-honored tradition.